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| Federal Politics: An Unlikely Victory |
| Kevin Rudd has selected his champion for Bennelong, Maxine McKew, and sent the pundits speculating and the spinners spinning. She can give John Howard a run for his money, they say, but it’s an unlikely victory. Conventional wisdom says it would take a powerful, national wave of sentiment against the Government to swing victory to McKew. However, could a close race in Bennelong be the quake that causes that electoral tidal wave? In focusing on whether victory is possible for McKew in Bennelong, the experts may have overlooked the impact of a close race in Bennelong on the election as a whole. McKew’s prospective campaign against Howard has been variously called a ‘distraction’ and an ‘annoyance’ for the Prime Minister. Suppose, however, that Rudd and McKew are doing more than playing with Howard’s head. Suppose that McKew is not a mere distraction, but Labor’s way to dismantle Howard and demolish the Coalition. Even if it’s unlikely that McKew will pick up the 4 per cent swing she needs to defeat Howard in the seat he’s held since 1974, what is more within her grasp is to pick up a few points and generate Bennelong polls that paint a portrait of a close contest. What will this accomplish? Picture the following. It’s the eve of the 2007 election and it’s close between Rudd and Howard. Voters in marginal seats across the country are making up their minds. In the papers, on the airwaves and at the water cooler they are seeing, hearing and talking about one thing — Howard could lose in Bennelong. Those voters will walk into the polling booths on election day not knowing for certain who will be the Prime Minister if they vote for the Coalition. If they vote Labor, however, they know they’ll get Kevin Rudd. This turns the advantage of a sitting government on its head and could spell political death for the Liberals and Howard. Regardless of Bennelong, of course, Labor can remind the public that Howard is likely to step down in the next term and his successor is unknown. However, there is a large difference between that kind of vague critique and the specific and immediate concern of voting for the Coalition on Saturday and waking up on Sunday without a Prime Minister. It’s the difference between an orderly, managed transition and an abrupt, chaotic one. Thanks to Fiona Katauskas While the media will certainly touch on the likely transfer of power in the Coalition’s next term, it will be a relatively minor story (one question, late in the interview, say). Whereas, the possibility of Howard losing in Bennelong would be constant front-page news in the final weeks and days of the election — without Labor even needing to make an effort. It is the type of election oddity and an opportunity for playful speculation that journalists and newspapers relish — especially if it means dissecting every new Bennelong opinion poll. There are things that the Liberals can do to mitigate this potential nightmare scenario, but the cures may be worse than the disease. Does the Coalition replace Howard with Peter Costello before the election? In such a quick-change scenario, Costello seems the only candidate capable of carrying the crucial mantle of economic management — and can one imagine Costello staying on as Treasurer, if he is again passed over for the leadership? But Costello has neither Howard’s image of strength and stability, nor Rudd’s dynamism and momentum. After Costello’s failed and half-hearted challenge to Howard, he may have suffered Kim Beazley’s fate and lost the public’s attention. Perhaps the Coalition could turn to bright light Malcolm Turnbull in hope of a Hawke-like ascendancy. Yet this strips the Coalition of one of its most appealing features — experienced leadership. No matter whom the potential replacement, Howard is not likely to go quickly or quietly. He is too ensconced in power, both within the Party and in his own mind. So, by the time any new leader takes the helm, the ship will already be half sunk and there will be precious little time to bail out the water. That only leaves a halfway approach of anointing a backup leader in the event of an overall Coalition victory and a Howard defeat in Bennelong. But that is probably the least viable option, as it shows weakness and amplifies rather than dispels confusion. If the last Queensland election proved anything, it is that getting cute about the leadership is electoral poison. This leaves the Coalition faced with taking the least worse of two poor options: Howard under a cloud; or Costello with too little time. The analysts, and perhaps the Liberal Party, have not quite realised how important this North Shore race has become. McKew may not directly provide the swing needed in Bennelong, but she may generate a wave of uncertainty which destabilises the Coalition and carries Labor into power and herself into office. If so, it won’t be a victory born of distraction, but by full force demolition. |
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About the author |
| Mark Connelly is a US lawyer working in Sydney. He previously worked for John Kerry’s US Presidential campaign in 2004. |
Monday, March 26, 2007
from New Matilda
Friday, March 2, 2007
Howard meets Cheney
Hi Mr Vice-President
Oh heck Harry, call me dick
No I'm John
Shit the Bell boy got it wrong, sorry John.
How was the flight, Dick?
Wonderful, you know I got to see "The Sound of Music" again.
Oh, good.
You know I never tire of it. I play it in my office all the time - but in my office of course I have surround sound.
I see. Your hotel is comfortable?
Oh Harry, the view is divine, I wanted to see the Opera Building, but MI6 said it was a no go.
MI6? Yeah they have already cased the joint, so we take their word for it.
Saves money I guess.
Yes . But we usually check safety with Mosad as well, and they aren't cheap.
Oh I see..
Not that we don't have our own secret service all over the place. Like I found out that my bell boy was secret service.
Really?
Yeah he carries three guns. One under each arm, and one in his crotch.
Oh.
Yeah he has a real neat holster in his crotch, it hooks onto his balls.
Hmff
Makes me feel so safe to know he is around.
Dick, I wanted to talk to you about Iraq.
Well I can't say when the pullout will be, but George will keep you posted.
The pullout?
Yeah well you see Harry, the war is a lost cause. Tribal civil wars aren't really our forte, as I'm sure you will agree.
Well the war against terror...
Is a furphy, global warming is a more pressing matter. That's where the votes are.
Kevin understands that. Your handful of troops is neither here nor there in the big picture of things. You know I just got a digitally remastered copy of "The Sound of Music". It's absolutely sensational. Mateo agrees with me.
Mateo?
My bell boy, or rather my personal bodyguard. He speaks five language fluently. But not Mandarin. Speaking of which it's just about time for our bath.
Gasp
I brought you a little something, a memento of this meeting. It looks like a biro, but its actually a miniature MP3 player. I've preloaded it with "The sound of Music". It's also a Satellite tracking system, and if you put it on the ground and whistle at it, it jumps around. Really amuses cats.
Well thank you Dick.
No worries Harry. See you at the White House sometime. Bye.
Bye.
Hello Jeanette? I can't tell you - my God what a fruitcake.
Libs are Running Scared
The Liberal-National coalition are on the back foot. With new revelations that
They were already hurt after the failed attempt by Costello to take over as PM. They dumped Amanda Vanstone, and put Turnbull into the cabinet (no doubt he will become the leader of the opposition after Howard loses the election).
Their half-hearted attempt to regain lost ground after their absolute refusal to consider climate change as real, is also likely to fail. Howard's ludicrous plan to build twenty five nuclear power plants is breathtaking in its naivety and stupidity. For a start, no State will agree to have such a political liability, or white elephant.
The factor that really spelt the end of the Howard regime, is electing Kevin Rudd as leader of the opposition. The coalition was looking forward to Beasley making a trifecta, ie three losses to Howard. With Rudd as leader the polls have shown how the public was just waiting for a credible Labor leader to form government. The media is calling this a 'honeymoon' period that a new leader enjoys. They will change their mind, when the polls will show that Rudd continues to grow in popularity.
To add insult to injury, Howard is being challenged in his own seat by high profile multi -award winning journalist Maxine Mckew. It might be a long shot, but with changed boundaries, and Greens preferences (they polled 17% in last elections), Howard is squirming.
The Hicks factor is one the government wishes it had handled better. The public is clearly concerned that David Hicks has been tortured and held in Guantanamo Bay hell hole for over 5 years, in a wire cage, and often chained to the ground) and has only recently been charged on trumped up charges, based on what he was forced to admit to under duress. Both Britain and Germany have demanded and got their national detainees returned to them from Guantanamo Bay. Howard of course has not only refused to bring Hicks home, but both he and Ruddock have publicly and nationally branded him as being guilty.
This is telling because it is symptomatic of Howard's basic flaw. He is so bloody-minded. Recently he was in Vietnam, being impressed by their hospitality. He gave a speech there, in which he talked about the Vietnam war, and how it was right and proper for Australia to be involved in it. No, he did not see it as a gaff. While the whole of the Western world has moved on from that era, realising what a costly mistake it was, and a tragedy for the US (50,000 deaths), Australia (500 deaths) not to mention an unknown multitude of Vietnamese deaths, Howard has no problem with it. He probably still holds with the domino theory. In his mind he can't believe that the US lost this war.
This is why Howard is a dangerous leader. Today, he still claims the Iraq has 'weapons of mass destruction', just we haven't found them yet. He also believes that we will win the war in Iraq, not realising that it has been lost for some time now. It is a tragic bloody disaster, that is why the US is negotiating a peaceful, dignified withdrawal from Iraq with Iran and Syria. Here speed is of the essence, because anytime soon, Israel seems intent on bombing the crap out of Iran.
The fact is that Howard is drunk with the reflected glory of a leader of the most powerful nation of the world, (a leader who won illegally), who calls him mate.
For Howard now, the plan is to hold on to power at any cost, so expect more dirty tricks.
They had a faint hearted attack on Maxime Mckew, expect more of the same.
With the continuing presence of our troops in Iraq, interest rates increases forecast, a failed history of any kind of environmental concern, unpopular IR laws (which Rudd will rewrite, not tare up) the outlawing of student union fees. Howard has an uphill battle
Another factor which might prove the straw that the public will not ignore is the fact that The Howard regime has been in power for ten years. The regime change that he was so in favour of four years ago, (in Iraq) might well come back to bite him.
... it has been revealed the federal Human Services Minister, Senator Ian Campbell, had discussions with Mr Burke about a racing redevelopment proposal when they met last year. (ABC news online: 03-03-07).It is clear that their mud-slinging match had backfired.
They were already hurt after the failed attempt by Costello to take over as PM. They dumped Amanda Vanstone, and put Turnbull into the cabinet (no doubt he will become the leader of the opposition after Howard loses the election).
Their half-hearted attempt to regain lost ground after their absolute refusal to consider climate change as real, is also likely to fail. Howard's ludicrous plan to build twenty five nuclear power plants is breathtaking in its naivety and stupidity. For a start, no State will agree to have such a political liability, or white elephant.
The factor that really spelt the end of the Howard regime, is electing Kevin Rudd as leader of the opposition. The coalition was looking forward to Beasley making a trifecta, ie three losses to Howard. With Rudd as leader the polls have shown how the public was just waiting for a credible Labor leader to form government. The media is calling this a 'honeymoon' period that a new leader enjoys. They will change their mind, when the polls will show that Rudd continues to grow in popularity.
To add insult to injury, Howard is being challenged in his own seat by high profile multi -award winning journalist Maxine Mckew. It might be a long shot, but with changed boundaries, and Greens preferences (they polled 17% in last elections), Howard is squirming.
The Hicks factor is one the government wishes it had handled better. The public is clearly concerned that David Hicks has been tortured and held in Guantanamo Bay hell hole for over 5 years, in a wire cage, and often chained to the ground) and has only recently been charged on trumped up charges, based on what he was forced to admit to under duress. Both Britain and Germany have demanded and got their national detainees returned to them from Guantanamo Bay. Howard of course has not only refused to bring Hicks home, but both he and Ruddock have publicly and nationally branded him as being guilty.
This is telling because it is symptomatic of Howard's basic flaw. He is so bloody-minded. Recently he was in Vietnam, being impressed by their hospitality. He gave a speech there, in which he talked about the Vietnam war, and how it was right and proper for Australia to be involved in it. No, he did not see it as a gaff. While the whole of the Western world has moved on from that era, realising what a costly mistake it was, and a tragedy for the US (50,000 deaths), Australia (500 deaths) not to mention an unknown multitude of Vietnamese deaths, Howard has no problem with it. He probably still holds with the domino theory. In his mind he can't believe that the US lost this war.
This is why Howard is a dangerous leader. Today, he still claims the Iraq has 'weapons of mass destruction', just we haven't found them yet. He also believes that we will win the war in Iraq, not realising that it has been lost for some time now. It is a tragic bloody disaster, that is why the US is negotiating a peaceful, dignified withdrawal from Iraq with Iran and Syria. Here speed is of the essence, because anytime soon, Israel seems intent on bombing the crap out of Iran.
The fact is that Howard is drunk with the reflected glory of a leader of the most powerful nation of the world, (a leader who won illegally), who calls him mate.
For Howard now, the plan is to hold on to power at any cost, so expect more dirty tricks.
They had a faint hearted attack on Maxime Mckew, expect more of the same.
With the continuing presence of our troops in Iraq, interest rates increases forecast, a failed history of any kind of environmental concern, unpopular IR laws (which Rudd will rewrite, not tare up) the outlawing of student union fees. Howard has an uphill battle
Another factor which might prove the straw that the public will not ignore is the fact that The Howard regime has been in power for ten years. The regime change that he was so in favour of four years ago, (in Iraq) might well come back to bite him.
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